Italy has a new electoral law, the fifth since the early 1990s. The reform, adopted on Thursday, will not wait long to be applied. The current legislature ends in September 2027, but early elections are very likely to be called as early as next spring. After a chaotic parliamentary journey marked by political quarrels, the electoral reform was overwhelmingly passed by the Chamber of Deputies. The outcome was hardly a surprise, given that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who leads a right-wing coalition, had dramatized the vote by announcing she would resign if the text were rejected. Few parliamentarians wished to find themselves back before voters so soon.

They will submit to their votes next year under this law, dubbed "Stabilicum." The Prime Minister last month broke the record for longevity at Palazzo Chigi, and she intends to keep it for a long time to come.

Key Facts

• Italy's Chamber of Deputies passed a new electoral law, the fifth since the early 1990s.
• The law, named "Stabilicum," introduces a fully proportional system with a governability bonus.
• Any coalition that crosses the 42% threshold automatically receives 70 additional deputies and 35 senators, securing a 55% majority.
• Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni threatened to resign if the law was rejected.
• Opposition parties call it "Melonellum," accusing it of twisting democratic rules to serve Meloni's interests.
• The reform aims to ensure political stability and governability in a country historically prone to ministerial instability.
• Parties must declare their programs, alliances, and prime ministerial candidate well before elections.
• Political scientist Gianluca Passarelli says the reform is a response to the failure of a more important constitutional reform for direct election of the prime minister.
• Current polls suggest a united left opposition could pass 42%, but the left remains deeply divided.
• Meloni faces a challenge from the far-right party Futuro nazionale led by former general Roberto Vannacci.

Ministerial Instability

Italy needs stability and predictability, the executive has repeatedly hammered to defend its law. "It will guarantee the governability" of a country historically accustomed to ministerial instability, assures Luca Ciriani, Minister for Relations with Parliament. He insists on the duty of clarity and transparency that political parties must submit to. They will have to define "well before the elections" both their program and their alliances, and above all announce their candidate for the position of President of the Council, the head of government.

The "Stabilicum" overturns the rules of the Italian electoral system. The latter currently combines a single-member majoritarian vote and proportional representation. The new law reintroduces a fully proportional system, but with a so-called governability bonus. Any coalition crossing the 42% threshold of votes is automatically awarded a bonus of 70 additional deputies in the Chamber and 35 in the Senate. A victory with only 42% of the vote will thus yield a majority of 55% of parliamentarians. "This law should be called the 'Melonellum' because it twists democratic rules to serve the interests of Giorgia Meloni and her coalition," fumes Riccardo Ricciardi, leader of the M5S group in the Chamber of Deputies, echoing opposition parties.

Strengthening Executive Power

The law primarily serves the current Prime Minister's desire to strengthen executive power, believes Gianluca Passarelli, political scientist at Sapienza University in Rome. "This electoral reform is explained by the failure of a much more important constitutional reform for Giorgia Meloni. She wanted to institute the 'premierato,' that is, the direct election of the head of government. A reform that would have been submitted to a referendum. The severe rejection of the referendum organized on her justice reform last spring made her change strategy. But the problem of Italian political instability is not caused by the rules of the ballot; it is due to the weakness of parties and their lack of cohesion."

Italy's political instability is legendary. Since the end of World War II, the country has had more than 60 governments. The average lifespan of a government has often been barely a year. This chronic instability has been attributed to various factors: the proportional representation system that encourages fragmentation, the weakness of political parties, and the lack of a strong executive. Over the decades, numerous attempts have been made to reform the electoral system to produce more stable majorities. The "Mattarellum" in 1993 introduced a mixed system with a strong majoritarian component. The "Porcellum" in 2005 returned to a proportional system with a majority bonus, but it was later declared unconstitutional in part. The "Italicum" in 2015 was another attempt, never applied to general elections. The "Rosatellum" in 2017, the current law, combined majoritarian and proportional elements. None of these reforms fully resolved the instability.

Meloni's "Stabilicum" is the latest attempt. It is designed to favor pre-electoral coalitions and to give a clear majority to the winning coalition. By requiring parties to declare their alliances and prime ministerial candidate well in advance, it aims to make the electoral choice more transparent and to reduce post-election maneuvering. However, critics argue that the 42% threshold is too low and that the bonus is disproportionate, effectively handing power to a coalition that does not have the support of a majority of voters. They also point out that the law does not address the underlying causes of instability, such as the fragmentation of the party system and the lack of internal party cohesion.

The political context adds another layer of complexity. Current polls indicate that a united left opposition could cross the 42% threshold. However, the left remains deeply divided over its strategy, its program, and the choice of coalition leader. The main opposition parties, the Democratic Party (PD) and the Five Star Movement (M5S), have different visions and constituencies. They have struggled to form a common front against Meloni. If they fail to unite, the right-wing coalition, even if it does not reach 42% on its own, could benefit from the bonus if it forms a broader alliance. Meloni's coalition includes her Brothers of Italy party, Matteo Salvini's League, and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (now led by Antonio Tajani). But she also faces a challenge from her right: the far-right party Futuro nazionale, led by former general Roberto Vannacci. Vannacci, a controversial figure known for his ultra-conservative views, has been gaining attention. To reach the fateful 42%, Meloni might be forced to ally with him, or to rely on the useful vote to avoid a dispersion of right-wing voters.

The "Stabilicum" also comes in the wake of other controversial reforms. Meloni's government has proposed restricting the full-face veil in schools and limiting the number of foreign students per class. These measures have sparked debates about integration and religious freedom. The justice reform referendum last spring was seen as a test of Meloni's popularity, and its rejection was a significant blow. The "premierato" reform, which would have introduced direct election of the prime minister, was a flagship project of Meloni's party. Its failure led her to pivot to the electoral law as a means to achieve similar goals of stability and executive strengthening.

As Italy prepares for early elections next spring, the new electoral law will be put to the test. The "Stabilicum" promises to deliver a clear winner and a stable government. But whether it will actually end Italy's long history of political instability remains to be seen. The opposition has vowed to challenge the law, and legal challenges are possible. The left's ability to unite will be crucial. If the left can overcome its divisions and present a credible alternative, it could capitalize on the new system. If not, Meloni and her allies may well secure another term. The coming months will be decisive for Italy's political future.

Source: Les Echos News